Changes in diet and physical activity following a community-wide pilot intervention to tackle childhood obesity in a deprived inner-London ward.

BACKGROUND: Local authorities in England have an important role in shaping healthy local environments contributing to childhood obesity. This study examined changes in diet and physical activity in primary school children following a three-year, complex, community-based intervention in Golborne ward, the second most deprived ward in London. METHODS: The Go-Golborne intervention aimed to shape the local environment across multiple settings with the engagement of a large number of local government and community stakeholders in a joint approach. Activities focused on six co-created themes to make changes to local environments and reduce sugary snacks and beverage consumption, increase fruit and vegetable intake, promote healthy snacks, increase active play and travel, and reduce screen time. We analysed changes in self-reported diet and physical activity, collected annually between 2016 and 2019, from 1,650 children aged 6-11 years through six local schools, who all received the intervention. We used multilevel, linear and logistic random-slope regression models adjusted for time on study, baseline age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, school, and baseline weight status. RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, there were reductions in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption (adjusted beta -0·43 occasions/day, 95% CI -0·55 to -0·32), fruit and vegetable consumption (adjusted beta -0.22 portions, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.001) and car travel to and from school (adjusted OR 0·19, 95% CI 0·06 to 0·66), while screen time increased (high versus moderate/low: OR 2·30, 95% CI 1·36 to 3·90). For other behavioural outcomes, there was no statistically significant evidence of changes. CONCLUSION: Local authorities have substantial powers to make positive changes to the obesogenic environment but programmes remain under-evaluated. Results from the ambitious Go-Golborne intervention demonstrated mixed results in health behaviours following programme implementation. These results underline the importance of a coordinated and comprehensive policy response to support changes in wider environmental and social conditions as well as appropriate and holistic evaluations of initiatives to inform local actions on obesogenic environments.

Ultra-processed foods, adiposity and risk of head and neck cancer and oesophageal adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study: a mediation analysis.

PURPOSE: To investigate the role of adiposity in the associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and head and neck cancer (HNC) and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS: Our study included 450,111 EPIC participants. We used Cox regressions to investigate the associations between the consumption of UPFs and HNC and OAC risk. A mediation analysis was performed to assess the role of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) in these associations. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated accidental death as a negative control outcome. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 14.13 ± 3.98 years, 910 and 215 participants developed HNC and OAC, respectively. A 10% g/d higher consumption of UPFs was associated with an increased risk of HNC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.34) and OAC (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.47). WHR mediated 5% (95% CI 3-10%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and HNC risk, while BMI and WHR, respectively, mediated 13% (95% CI 6-53%) and 15% (95% CI 8-72%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and OAC risk. UPF consumption was positively associated with accidental death in the negative control analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We reaffirmed that higher UPF consumption is associated with greater risk of HNC and OAC in EPIC. The proportion mediated via adiposity was small. Further research is required to investigate other mechanisms that may be at play (if there is indeed any causal effect of UPF consumption on these cancers).

Price differences between capsule, menthol non-capsule and unflavoured cigarettes in 65 countries in 2018.

The global consumption of flavoured cigarettes, particularly capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes, has been rising rapidly. Their attractiveness has been fuelled by perceptions of improved palatability, along with industry marketing tactics such as lower price points in some regions. This study aimed to compare prices of unflavoured, capsule, and menthol non-capsule cigarettes across 65 countries by analysing 2018 cigarette price data from Euromonitor Passport. Median prices of capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes were each compared to unflavoured cigarettes at the country-level. Countries were included in the analysis if they contained price data for capsule or menthol non-capsule and unflavoured cigarettes (n = 65). The median price of capsule cigarettes was the same as unflavoured cigarettes in 12 out of 50 countries and not statistically different in another 31 countries (p > 0.05). Capsule cigarettes were more expensive than unflavoured cigarettes in five countries and cheaper in two (p < 0.05). The median price of menthol non-capsule cigarettes was the same as unflavoured cigarettes in 6 out of 51 countries and not statistically different in another 39 countries (p > 0.05). Menthol non-capsule cigarettes were more expensive than unflavoured cigarettes in five countries and cheaper in one country (p < 0.05). There was no pattern found in the pricing of capsule or menthol non-capsule cigarettes, suggesting variability in the tobacco industry's pricing strategies across countries. Tailoring tobacco control policies to match national market conditions, particularly in countries with significant market shares of capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes could help address the public health threat posed by the tobacco epidemic.

Twenty-year trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors among people with type 2 diabetes by dementia status in England: a retrospective cohort study.

To assess 20-year retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors preceding dementia diagnosis among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We identified 227,145 people with T2D aged > 42 years between 1999 and 2018. Annual mean levels of eight routinely measured cardio-metabolic factors were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable multilevel piecewise and non-piecewise growth curve models assessed retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors by dementia status from up to 19 years preceding dementia diagnosis (dementia) or last contact with healthcare (no dementia). 23,546 patients developed dementia; mean (SD) follow-up was 10.0 (5.8) years. In the dementia group, mean systolic blood pressure increased 16-19 years before dementia diagnosis compared with patients without dementia, but declined more steeply from 16 years before diagnosis, while diastolic blood pressure generally declined at similar rates. Mean body mass index followed a steeper non-linear decline from 11 years before diagnosis in the dementia group. Mean blood lipid levels (total cholesterol, LDL, HDL) and glycaemic measures (fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c) were generally higher in the dementia group compared with those without dementia and followed similar patterns of change. However, absolute group differences were small. Differences in levels of cardio-metabolic factors were observed up to two decades prior to dementia diagnosis. Our findings suggest that a long follow-up is crucial to minimise reverse causation arising from changes in cardio-metabolic factors during preclinical dementia. Future investigations which address associations between cardiometabolic factors and dementia should account for potential non-linear relationships and consider the timeframe when measurements are taken.

Ultra-processed food consumption, cancer risk and cancer mortality: a large-scale prospective analysis within the UK Biobank.

Background: Global dietary patterns are increasingly dominated by relatively cheap, highly palatable, and ready-to-eat ultra-processed foods (UPFs). However, prospective evidence is limited on cancer development and mortality in relation to UPF consumption. This study examines associations between UPF consumption and risk of cancer and associated mortality for 34 site-specific cancers in a large cohort of British adults. Methods: This study included a prospective cohort of UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69 years) who completed 24-h dietary recalls between 2009 and 2012 (N = 197426, 54.6% women) and were followed up until Jan 31, 2021. Food items consumed were categorised according to their degree of food processing using the NOVA food classification system. Individuals' UPF consumption was expressed as a percentage of total food intake (g/day). Prospective associations were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for baseline socio-demographic characteristics, smoking status, physical activity, body mass index, alcohol and total energy intake. Findings: The mean UPF consumption was 22.9% (SD 13.3%) in the total diet. During a median follow-up time of 9.8 years, 15,921 individuals developed cancer and 4009 cancer-related deaths occurred. Every 10 percentage points increment in UPF consumption was associated with an increased incidence of overall (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04) and specifically ovarian (1.19; 1.08-1.30) cancer. Furthermore, every 10 percentage points increment in UPF consumption was associated with an increased risk of overall (1.06; 1.03-1.09), ovarian (1.30; 1.13-1.50), and breast (1.16; 1.02-1.32) cancer-related mortality. Interpretation: Our UK-based cohort study suggests that higher UPF consumption may be linked to an increased burden and mortality for overall and certain site-specific cancers especially ovarian cancer in women. Funding: The Cancer Research UK and World Cancer Research Fund.

Cigarette taxation and price differentials in 195 countries during 2014-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Raising tobacco prices via increased taxation may be undermined by tobacco industry tactics to keep budget cigarettes on the market. Price differentials between budget and premium cigarettes allow smokers to trade down in the face of average price rises thus attenuating health benefits. This study examines global trends of price differentials and associations with taxation. METHODS: Ecological analysis of country-level panel data of 195 countries' price differentials was performed and compared against total, specific excise, ad valorem and other taxation. Price differentials were expressed as the difference between budget cigarette and premium pack prices (as % of premium pack prices). Two-level linear regression models with repeated measurements (2014, 2016 and 2018) nested within each country assessed the association between country-level taxation structures and price differentials, adjusted for year, geographical region and income group. RESULTS: Worldwide, median price differential between budget and premium 20-cigarette packs was 49.4% (IQR 25.9%-70.0%) in 2014 and 44.4% (IQR 22.5%-69.4%) in 2018 with significant regional variation. The largest price differentials in 2018 were in Africa, with the lowest in Europe. Total taxation was negatively associated with price differentials (-1.5%, 95% CI -2.5% to -0.4% per +10% total taxation) as was specific excise taxation (-2.5%, 95% CI -3.7% to -1.2% per +10% specific excise tax). We found no statistically significant association between ad valorem taxation and price differentials. CONCLUSION: Total levels of taxation and specific excise taxes were associated with smaller price differentials. Implementing high specific excise taxes may reduce price differentials and improve health outcomes.

Global market trends of flavor capsule cigarettes and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes: An ecological analysis using commercial data across 78 countries, 2010-2020.

INTRODUCTION: This study describes market trends of flavor capsule cigarettes (FCCs) and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes (MNCCs) across 78 countries from 2010 to 2020 and examines country-level factors associated with market shares of these products. METHODS: Market share and retail volume data came from the Euromonitor Passport database and country-level data came from the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. Multivariable linear fixed effects panel regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between predictor variables and the market shares of menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes and flavor capsule cigarettes. RESULTS: The overall market share (i.e. the percentage retail volume out of total retail volume of all cigarette types) increased from 0.23% in 2010 to 4.5% in 2020 for FCCs and decreased from 5.0% to 3.8% for MNCCs. Market shares of FCCs grew most rapidly in the Americas region and among upper middle-income countries. Market shares of MNCCs remained stable across most regions and were highest in the Western Pacific and Africa regions. The overall market share of FCCs was positively associated with the unemployment rate (ß=0.28; 95% CI: 0.12-0.44, p=0.001), and inversely associated with the percent of the population aged 15-29 years (ß= -0.57, 95% CI: -0.98 - -0.15, p=0.008), percent of urban population (ß= -0.88; 95% CI: -1.28 - -0.48, p<0.001), GDP PPP per capita (ß= -0.13; 95% CI: -0.24 - -0.03, p=0.015), and age-standardized prevalence of cigarette smoking (ß= -0.93; 95% CI: -1.38 - -0.49, p<0.001). In contrast, the overall market share of MNCCs was positively associated with urbanicity (ß=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.40, p=0.003), and negatively associated with the unemployment rate (ß= -0.09; 95% CI: -0.17 - -0.02, p=0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Global sales of flavor capsule cigarettes grew substantially in the last decade, surpassing menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes, which also continued to be high in many regions. There is a need for increased efforts to address flavors and novel tobacco products, features that are known to appeal to youth.

Metabolic profiles of ultra-processed food consumption and their role in obesity risk in British children.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Higher consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) has been associated with childhood obesity, but underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We investigated plasma nuclear magnetic resonance metabolic profiles of higher UPF consumption and their role in obesity risk in the British ALSPAC cohort. METHODS: We performed cross-sectional and prospective metabolome wide association analyses of UPF, calculated from food diaries using the NOVA classification. In cross-sectional analysis, we tested the association between UPF consumption and metabolic profile at 7 years (N = 4528), and in the prospective analysis we tested the association between UPF consumption at 13 years and metabolic profile at 17 years (N = 3086). Effects of UPF-associated metabolites at 7 years on subsequent fat mass accumulation were assessed using growth curve models. RESULTS: At 7 years, UPF was associated with 115 metabolic traits including lower levels of branched-chain and aromatic amino acids and higher levels of citrate, glutamine, and monounsaturated fatty acids, which were also associated with greater fat mass accumulation. Reported intake of nutrients mediated associations with most metabolites, except for citrate. CONCLUSIONS: UPF consumption among British children is associated with perturbation of multiple metabolic traits, many of which contribute to child obesity risk.

The Ultra-Processed Food Content of School Meals and Packed Lunches in the United Kingdom.

British children have the highest levels of ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption in Europe. Schools are posited as a positive setting for impacting dietary intake, but the level of UPFs consumed in schools is currently unknown. This study determined the UPF content of school food in the UK. We conducted a pooled cross-sectional analysis of primary (4-11 years, n = 1895) and secondary schoolchildren (11-18 years, n = 1408) from the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2017). Multivariable quantile regression models determined the association between meal-type (school meal or packed lunch) and lunchtime UPF intake (NOVA food classification system). We showed that on average, UPF intake was high in both primary (72.6% total lunch Kcal) and secondary schoolchildren (77.8% total lunch Kcal). Higher UPF intakes were observed in packed lunch consumers, secondary schoolchildren, and those in lower income households. This study highlights the need for a renewed focus on school food. Better guidance and policies that consider levels of industrial processing in food served in schools are needed to ensure the dual benefit of encouraging school meal uptake and equitably improving children's diets.

Dietary quality of school meals and packed lunches: a national study of primary and secondary schoolchildren in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: School lunches represent a key opportunity to improve diets and health of schoolchildren. No recent nationally representative studies have examined the nutritional differences between school meals and packed lunches in the UK. This study aimed to characterise and compare the nutritional quality of school meals and packed lunches among primary and secondary school-age children. DESIGN: A pooled cross-sectional analysis of the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2017). SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 3001 children (aged 4-16 years) who completed a 3/4-d food diary which recorded meal type (school meal/packed lunch). Multivariable logistic regression models assessed associations of meeting food and nutrient recommendations by meal type. Analyses were stratified by academic key stages (KS). RESULTS: KS-1 (4-7 years) and 2 (8-11 years) children consuming school meals were more likely to meet minimum recommendations for vegetables, protein-rich foods and fibre, and not exceed maximum recommendations for salt, savoury and sweet snacks compared with pupils consuming packed lunches. However, in KS-3 (12-14 years) and 4 (14-16 years), these effects were reduced. As children aged, the median weight of fruits, vegetables, protein-rich foods and dairy products consumed typically decreased for both school meals and packed lunches, and generally an increasing proportion of school meals contained sweet and savoury snacks. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest school meals are nutritionally superior to packed lunches but are not yet optimal. Quality declined at higher KS. Actions to improve lunches of primary and secondary schoolchildren across the UK are needed, with attention to KS-3 and 4 in secondary schools.

The Impact of the Universal Infant Free School Meal Policy on Dietary Quality in English and Scottish Primary School Children: Evaluation of a Natural Experiment.

The Universal Infant Free School Meal (UIFSM) policy was introduced in September 2014 in England and January 2015 in Scotland and offered all infant schoolchildren (ages 4-7 years) a free school lunch, regardless of income. Yet, impacts of UIFSM on dietary intakes or social inequalities are not known. A difference-in-differences study using the National Diet and Nutrition Survey assessed pooled pre-UIFSM (2010-2014) and post-UIFSM (2014-2017) dietary data. English or Scottish infant schoolchildren (4-7 years; n = 458) were the intervention group, with junior schoolchildren (8-11 years; n = 401) as controls. We found that implementation of UIFSM led to an increase in infant schoolchildren having a school meal. Impacts on key food groups such as fruit and vegetables or sweetened beverages were not seen. However, there was evidence that the UIFSM policy lowered consumption of foods associated with packed lunches, such as crisps, and some nutrients, such as total fat and sodium. Policy impacts differed by income group, with larger effect sizes in low-income children. In conclusion, evaluation of UIFSM demonstrated some improvements in dietary quality but the findings suggest school meal quality needs to be improved to fully realise the benefits of UIFSM.

The ultra-processed food content of school meals and packed lunches in the UK, 2008-17: a pooled cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: British children have the highest ultra-processed food (UPF) intake in Europe, concerning as UPF is linked to adverse health outcomes. Schools are a potential setting for intervention, yet the rate of UPFs consumed at schools is currently unknown. This study aimed to describe the UPF content of school food in the UK and to explore differences in UPF content by meal type (school meals and packed lunches [food from home]) and children's household income. METHODS: We performed a pooled cross-sectional analysis of 1895 primary school children (aged 4-11 years) and 1408 secondary school children (aged 11-18 years) using data from the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (from Feb, 2008, to June, 2017). Student's meal type was recorded using food diaries. UPF intake was defined using the NOVA food classification system. Income was measured through interview. We used quantile regression models to assess the association between meal type and lunchtime UPF intake (by both the percentage of calories and weight). We stratified models by school phase (primary or secondary) and interacted meal type with income. FINDINGS: The majority of schoolchildren's lunch was defined as UPFs, with secondary school children having higher median intakes of UPFs than primary school children (78% kcal [IQR 58-95] vs 73% kcal [55-86). School meals were associated with a lower median UPF intake than packed lunches for primary school children (61% kcal [IQR 44-75] vs 81% kcal [71-91]) and for secondary school children (70% kcal [IQR 48-89] vs 84% kcal [65-99]). Results were similar when UPFs were analysed as a percentage of the total weight of lunch. Overall, income was inversely associated with UPF lunch content. However, in primary school children, there was no significant association between percentage of UPF content of school meals by weight. INTERPRETATION: In the first nationally representative study, we showed that UK school children have a high intake of UPFs at lunch. UPF intake was increased in children who consumed packed lunches, secondary school children, and children of a lower income. School meal procurement policies must be re-evaluated to protect children from high UPF intake. FUNDING: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research.

Cigarette taxation and neonatal and infant mortality: A longitudinal analysis of 159 countries.

Previous studies on the associations between cigarette taxes and infant survival have all been in high-income countries and did not examine the relative benefits of different taxation levels and structures. We evaluated longitudinal associations of cigarette taxes with neonatal and infant mortality globally. We applied country-level panel regressions using 2008-2018 annual mortality and biennial WHO tobacco taxation data. Complete data was available for 159 countries. Outcomes were neonatal and infant mortality. We conducted analyses by type of taxes (i.e. specific cigarette taxes, ad valorem taxes, and other taxes, import duties and VAT) and the income group classification of countries. Covariates included scores for other WHO recommended tobacco control policies, socioeconomic, health-care, and air quality measures. Secondary analyses investigated the associations between cigarette tax and cigarette consumption. We found that a 10 percentage-point increase in total cigarette tax as a percentage of the retail price was associated with a 2.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.9% to 3.2%) decrease in neonatal mortality and a 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3% to 2.6%) decrease in infant mortality globally. Estimates were similar for both excise and ad valorem taxes. We estimated that 231,220 (95% CI: 152,658 to 307,655) infant deaths could have been averted in 2018 if all countries had total cigarette tax at least 75%. 99.2% of these averted deaths would have been in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The secondary analysis supported causal interpretation of results by finding that a 10 percentage-point increase in taxes was associated with a reduction of 94.6 (95% CI: 32.7 to 156.5) in annual cigarette consumption per capita. Although causal inference is precarious due to the quasi-experimental design, we used a robust analytical approach and focused on within-country changes. Limitations include an inability to include data on roll-your-own tobacco, other forms of tobacco use, and reliance on taxation data only for the cigarette brands most sold in each country. In line with limited existing evidence conducted in HICs, we found that raising taxes on tobacco was associated with a reduction in neonatal and infant mortality globally. Implementing recommended levels of taxation in LMICs should be a priority since this is where the lowest levels of taxation and the largest potential infant mortality benefits exist.

Is the healthy start scheme associated with increased food expenditure in low-income families with young children in the United Kingdom?

BACKGROUND: Healthy Start is a food assistance programme in the United Kingdom (UK) which aims to provide a nutritional safety-net and enable low-income families on welfare benefits to access a healthier diet through the provision of food vouchers. Healthy Start was launched in 2006 but remains under-evaluated. This study aims to determine whether participation in the Healthy Start scheme is associated with differences in food expenditure in a nationally representative sample of households in the UK. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of the Living Costs and Food Survey dataset (2010-2017). All households with a child (0-3 years) or pregnant woman were included in the analysis (n = 4869). Multivariable quantile regression compared the expenditure and quantity of fruit and vegetables (FV), infant formula and total food purchases. Four exposure groups were defined based on eligibility, participation and income (Healthy Start Participating, Eligible Non-participating, Nearly Eligible low-income and Ineligible high-income households). RESULTS: Of 876 eligible households, 54% participated in Healthy Start. No statistically significant differences were found in FV or total food purchases between participating and eligible non-participating households, but infant formula purchases were lower in Healthy Start participating households. Ineligible higher-income households had higher purchases of FV. CONCLUSION: This study did not find evidence of an association between Healthy Start participation and FV expenditure. Moreover, inequalities in FV purchasing persist in the UK. Higher participation and increased voucher value may help to improve programme performance and counteract the harmful effects of poverty on diet.

Price differentials of tobacco products: A cross-sectional analysis of 79 countries from the six WHO regions.

INTRODUCTION: Increased taxation is one of the most effective tobacco control measures. Price differentials across tobacco product types may undermine the effectiveness of taxation policies by providing the option to switch to cheaper products rather than to quit. The aim of this study was to use commercial data to compare prices and price differentials of both cigarette and non-cigarette products across countries from all geographical regions. METHODS: We analyzed 6920 price data points (i.e. product brands) from Euromonitor Passport 2016 for 12 types of tobacco products across 79 countries from the six WHO regions: Africa (n=5), Eastern Mediterranean (n=6), Europe (n=39), the Americas (n=15), South-East Asia (n=3), and Western Pacific (n=12). For each product and country, a price differential was computed as the percentage of minimum price to the median. RESULTS: Median cigarette prices (US$) were highest in Western Pacific countries (4.00; range: 0.80-16.20) and European countries (3.80; range: 0.80-14.00), but lowest in African countries (2.00; range: 0.80-2.20). The medians of cigarette price differentials were largest in the Eastern Mediterranean (48.33%) and African regions (50.00%), but smallest in Europe (82.35%). Pipe tobacco and fine-cut tobacco were generally less expensive than cigarettes while cigars were the most expensive. However, there were wide variations in prices and price differentials across regions and tobacco products. CONCLUSIONS: We found substantial variations in prices and price differentials between countries and world regions across tobacco products, likely reflecting differences in taxation policies and structures. Findings identify types of tobacco products in specific geographical regions where price differentials are highest, thereby highlighting areas where taxation policies need improvement, for example through implementing specific excise taxes.

Cigarette prices in eight sub-Saharan African countries in 2018: a cross-sectional analysis.

OBJECTIVE: While the trend in smoking prevalence is decreasing worldwide, the number of male tobacco smokers is growing in Africa. This study compares the cigarette market in eight sub-Saharan African countries. This includes examining cigarette prices, pricing differentials, pack sizes and affordability at national and subnational levels. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional data analysis using data from the Data on Alcohol and Tobacco in Africa (DATA) Project. The DATA Project was centrally coordinated by project supervisors following a standardised protocol. University students were recruited to conduct data collection and a total of 22 347 retail cigarette price data points collected between June and August 2018 were analysed (including Botswana, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). Prices were converted to US$ and standardised to the price of a 20-cigarette pack. RESULTS: This research found large price differentials within provinces/states, with the gap between medium and minimum prices per 20-cigarette pack exceeding 50% of the medium price in 18 out of 24 provinces/states. Single cigarettes were widely available, especially in Lesotho and Ethiopia. Results of multivariable regression suggest prices (per 20-cigarette pack) were lower for cigarettes sold in packs than single sticks (-US$0.27, 95% CI: -US$0.39 to -US$0.23) and lower in less populated areas (-US$0.28 in rural compared with urban settings, 95% CI: -US$0.41 to -US$0.15). Availability of cheaper single cigarettes (lower per unit price than packed cigarettes) were identified for Lesotho and South Africa. CONCLUSIONS: These findings identify a varied picture in cigarette pricing in studied countries and suggest measures to tackle pricing differentials and availability of single sticks are warranted. These measures should counteract the potential health consequences of the increasing penetration of tobacco industry in these sub-Saharan African countries.

Association Between Childhood Consumption of Ultraprocessed Food and Adiposity Trajectories in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children Birth Cohort.

Importance: Reports of associations between higher consumption of ultraprocessed foods (UPF) and elevated risks of obesity, noncommunicable diseases, and mortality in adults are increasing. However, associations of UPF consumption with long-term adiposity trajectories have never been investigated in children. Objective: To assess longitudinal associations between UPF consumption and adiposity trajectories from childhood to early adulthood. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective birth cohort study included children who participated in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in Avon County, southwest England. Children were followed up from 7 to 24 years of age during the study period from September 1, 1998, to October 31, 2017. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021. Exposures: Baseline dietary intake data were collected using 3-day food diaries. Consumption of UPF (applying the NOVA food classification system) was computed as a percentage of weight contribution in the total daily food intake for each participant and categorized into quintiles. Main Outcomes and Measures: Repeated recordings of objectively assessed anthropometrics (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], weight, and waist circumference) and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements (fat and lean mass indexes [calculated as fat and lean mass, respectively, divided by height in meters squared] and body fat percentage). Associations were evaluated using linear growth curve models and were adjusted for study covariates. Results: A total of 9025 children (4481 [49.7%] female and 4544 [50.3%] male) were followed up for a median of 10.2 (interquartile range, 5.2-16.4) years. The mean (SD) UPF consumption at baseline was 23.2% (5.0%) in quintile 1, 34.7% (2.5%) in quintile 2, 43.4% (2.5%) in quintile 3, 52.7% (2.8%) in quintile 4, and 67.8% (8.1%) in quintile 5. Among those in the highest quintile of UPF consumption compared with their lowest quintile counterpart, trajectories of BMI increased by an additional 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.08) per year; fat mass index, by an additional 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.05) per year; weight, by an additional 0.20 (95% CI, 0.11-0.28) kg per year; and waist circumference, by an additional 0.17 (95% CI, 0.11-0.22) cm per year. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that higher UPF consumption is associated with greater increases in adiposity from childhood to early adulthood. Robust public health measures that promote minimally processed foods and discourage UPF consumption among children are urgently needed to reduce obesity in England and globally.

Ultra-processed food consumption and type 2 diabetes incidence: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Ultra-processed foods account for more than 50% of daily calories consumed in several high-income countries, with sales of ultra-processed foods soaring globally, especially in middle-income countries. The objective of this study is to investigate the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a UK-based prospective cohort study. METHODS: Participants of the UK Biobank (2007-2019) aged 40-69 years without diabetes at recruitment who provided 24-h dietary recall and follow-up data were included. UPFs were defined using the NOVA food classification. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between UPF consumption and the risk of T2D adjusting for socio-demographic, anthropometric and lifestyle characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 21,730 participants with a mean age of 55.8 years and mean UPF intake of 22.1% at baseline were included. During a mean follow-up of 5.4 years (116,956 person-years), 305 incident T2D cases were identified. In the fully adjusted model, compared with the group in the lowest quartile of UPF intake, the hazard ratio for T2D was 1.44, 1.04-2.02 in the group with the highest quartile of UPF consumption. A gradient of elevated risk of T2D associated with increasing quartiles of UPF intake was consistently observed (p value for trend < 0.028). A significantly increased risk of T2D was observed per 10 percentage points increment in UPF consumption ([adjusted HR]: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.20). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that a diet high in UPFs is associated with a clinically important increased risk of T2D. Identifying and implementing effective public health actions to reduce UPF consumption in the UK and globally are urgently required.

Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity: a prospective cohort study of UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity among UK adults. METHODS: Participants aged 40-69 years at recruitment in the UK Biobank (2006-2019) with dietary intakes collected using 24-h recall and repeated measures of adiposity--body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and percentage of body fat (% BF)--were included (N = 22,659; median follow-up: 5 years). Ultra-processed foods were identified using the NOVA classification and their consumption was expressed as a percentage of total energy intake. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of several indicators of obesity according to ultra-processed food consumption. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. RESULTS: 947 incident cases of overall obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and 1900 incident cases of abdominal obesity (men: WC ≥ 102 cm, women: WC ≥ 88 cm) were identified during follow-up. Participants in the highest quartile of ultra-processed food consumption had significantly higher risk of developing overall obesity (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.06─3.03) and abdominal obesity (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.14─1.48). They had higher risk of experiencing a ≥ 5% increase in BMI (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.20─1.43), WC (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.25─1.45) and %BF (HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03─1.25), than those in the lowest quartile of consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that higher consumption of ultra-processed food is strongly associated with a higher risk of multiple indicators of obesity in the UK adult population. Policy makers should consider actions that promote consumption of fresh or minimally processed foods and reduce consumption of ultra-processed foods.

Evaluation of the Diabetes Screening Component of a National Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Programme in England: a Retrospective Cohort Study.

Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is increasing but the effectiveness of large-scale diabetes screening programmes is debated. We assessed associations between coverage of a national cardiovascular and diabetes risk assessment programme in England (NHS Health Check) and detection and management of incident cases of non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH) and T2D. Retrospective analysis employing propensity score covariate adjustment method of prospectively collected data of 348,987 individuals aged 40-74 years and registered with 455 general practices in England (January 2009-May 2016). We examined differences in diagnosis of NDH and T2D, and changes in blood glucose levels and cardiovascular risk score between individuals registered with general practices with different levels (tertiles) of programme coverage. Over the study period 7,126 cases of NDH and 12,171 cases of T2D were detected. Compared with low coverage practices, incidence rate of detection in medium and high coverage practices were 15% and 19% higher for NDH and 10% and 9% higher for T2D, respectively. Individuals with NDH in high coverage practices had 0.2 mmol/L lower mean fasting plasma glucose and 0.9% lower cardiovascular risk score at follow-up. General practices actively participating in the programme had higher detection of NDH and T2D and improved management of blood glucose and cardiovascular risk factors.